They Doth Protest Much
By Steven J. Grisafi, PhD.
The reactions of European Union officials to the suspected sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines are suspicious. The most definitive clue in this case is the proximity of the leaks to Bornholm island. The pipelines extend a long way from the coast of Russia toward the coast of Germany. Assuming that one could accept the ludicrous proposition that the Russians damaged their own pipelines, which were not currently operational, and would not be operational unless they themselves choose to make both piperlines operational, why would Russia choose to damage the pipelines within the economic zones of Denmark and Sweden?
The proximity of the damage to the island of Bornholm strongly suggests that the sabotage was conducted by persons presenting themselves as civilians who traveled to the island of Bornholm from Sweden. Most likely such persons traveled by ferry to the island for Summer holiday. They probably made more than one trip to the island and stayed there a significant length of time.
In all situations of criminal activity one must consider the motive. Russia has no motive in this case. Poland, the Ukraine, and the United States are the three suspects that possess the strongest motives. President Biden has hinted several times than America would take such action to incapacitate the Nord Stream II pipeline. But why would he instruct the Central Intelligence Agency to do it now?
If America is responsible it was the Central Intelligence Agency that sabotaged the pipelines. However, I consider other suspects to be much more likely than the CIA. As far as I can imagine, President Biden would only instruct the CIA to incapacitate the pipelines if he needed that action as part of an agreement he was trying to persuade President Zelensky to accept. The announcement of the $1.1 billion new package of military aid to the Ukraine, coinciding with the news reports of the damaged pipelines, suggests to me that it could be part of a package deal Mr. Biden is trying to persuade Mr. Zelensky to accept. I believe he would be doing so now because Mr. Biden has become convinced that Russia will use tactical nuclear weapons in the Ukraine. In that event America’s response would be to attempt to destroy those weapons when our intelligence services detect that Russia is moving them into deployment positions. That would entail either NATO bombing Russian soil, or America providing both the intelligence and the long range missiles to Ukraine so that they could attack Russian soil. Russia has already warned that providing long range missiles to Ukraine constitutes participation in the war. Mr. Biden does not want to escalate the war to cause the involvement of NATO. Nor does he want the Ukraine attacking Russian soil. He wants Mr. Zelensky to accept a compromise with Russia.
I think the most likely suspect for the sabotage is a joint operation of Ukrainians assisted by Poland. Poland shares extensive coastline on the Baltic Sea. This act of sabotage requires extensive knowledge of the sea and its floor. The suggestion of the former defense minister of Poland on Twitter, thanking the United States for this act of sabotage, implies that Poland may be trying to deflect away any implication to themselves. The odd response of nearly all EU officials suggests to me that they suspect one of themselves, or the Americans, as having committed the sabotage.
Swedish police need to investigate all cottage rentals and boat rentals that occurred throughout the just passed Summer holiday season. In my opinion, I consider it far more likely that this sabotage was conducted by persons presenting themselves as civilians. It was not committed from military vessels in the waters of the Baltic Sea.